Findings: National Ridership Growth (2019 vs 2024)

Summary

Among the 150 largest US transit agencies, the median ridership change from 2019 to 2024 was −22.4%. Only 11 of 150 agencies (7%) recovered to pre-pandemic levels. PRT ranks 136th out of 150, with a −42.4% decline.

Key Numbers

• Median change: −22.4%
• Mean change: −22.4%
• IQR: −33.4% to −12.0%
• Agencies recovered to 2019 levels: 11 / 150 (7%)
• PRT rank: 136 / 150 (−42.4% change)
• PRT 2019 UPT: 64.1 million → 2024 UPT: 36.9 million
• Top recovery: City of Alexandria (+34.6%)
• Bottom: Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority (−85.8%)

Observations

• The transit industry as a whole has not recovered to 2019 ridership levels. The median agency is still down about one-fifth.
• Only a handful of mostly smaller or mid-size agencies — Alexandria, Richmond, Tucson, Albany — have grown past their 2019 totals, often reflecting route restructures or fare-free programs.
• Large legacy systems (BART −56%, Metrolink −60%) lag due to heavy reliance on commuter/office workers who shifted to remote work.
• PRT's −42.4% decline places it in the bottom quintile, substantially below the median. This is worse than most similarly-sized agencies.
• The distribution is roughly normal around −22%, with a long left tail of commuter-heavy agencies.

Discussion

PRT's below-median recovery suggests Pittsburgh-specific headwinds beyond the national pandemic trend. Possible factors include sustained remote-work adoption in major employers (UPMC, university sector), service cuts that may have dampened demand, and light rail losses that drag the overall figure below bus-only recovery.

Caveats

• "Top 150" is defined by 2019 UPT, which excludes agencies that have grown from a small base.
• Requires at least 10 months of data per year to exclude partial-year artifacts; a few agencies near the cutoff may have slightly biased totals.
• UPT counts all modes and TOS combined; agencies with large commuter rail components (which recovered less) appear worse than bus-only peers.
• NTD data includes estimates and adjustments; some months may be revised after initial reporting.

Methods: National Ridership Growth (2019 vs 2024)

Question

What is the average 2019-to-2024 ridership change across the 150 largest US transit agencies, and where does Pittsburgh Regional Transit rank?

Approach

• Sum unlinked passenger trips (UPT) by agency across all modes/TOS for calendar years 2019 and 2024.
• Require at least 10 months of non-null data in both years to avoid partial-year artifacts.
• Rank agencies by 2019 total to define the "top 150" (pre-pandemic baseline, not distorted by COVID).
• Compute percent change ((2024 − 2019) / 2019 × 100) per agency.
• Report median, mean, and IQR of the percent change distribution.
• Count how many agencies have recovered to or exceeded 2019 levels.
• Identify PRT's rank in the distribution.

Data

• ntd_ridership — monthly UPT by agency/mode/TOS, filtered to 2019 and 2024.
• ntd_agency — agency names for labeling.

Output

• output/ridership_growth_distribution.png — histogram of percent change with PRT highlighted.
• output/ridership_growth_ranking.png — horizontal bar chart of all 150 agencies, PRT in distinct color.
• output/ridership_growth_data.csv — per-agency data (ntd_id, agency_name, upt_2019, upt_2024, pct_change, rank).